Well, I've convinced myself its worth holding (why I'm in the queue) relative to my other positions. I'll see what I can accumulate.
2.5cps??? Gee I was thinking at present it's almost a "free hit" ... what I am looking for are really four things:
(a) how many Bbls NGLs per Mmcf ... I believe CE1 acreage is in the >30 Bbl/Mmcf, possibly up against the 30-50 area. This is real important IMO. 20% NGLs is 1.8Bcf or 300,000BOE of NGLS and 7.2Bcf gas. Roughly 42 Bbls per Mmcf
(b) Of the NGLs what % are C5+. If we get 50% C5+ (150,000Bbls) over life of well then happy days. Improves economics no end.
(c) How close the type curve is to BSE's 9Bcf EUR and IP 30 & 90days at approx 6,000Mcfpd & 4,750Mcfpd. Converting to BOEs then IP30 is 1,000 boepd. NGLs then is 200 boepd and C5+ needs to be at least 100 Bbls per day. Those initial numbers for NGLs would be low side as they produce strong earlier and decline much quicker than gas - maybe double that rate in first 90 days?? BSE has recorded in the range of 40 - 70 Bbls per Mmcf. At their reported avg IP30 of 1,100 boepd they expect 25% liquids or 275 boepd of which up to ~160 Bpd are C5+.
(d) Development well cost at around $4M D&C (1,800m lateral) for that 9 Bcf EUR
That would make CE1 look a lot like a small BSE, right next to their "Jedney" area and very attractive to them IMO (see Ve/IBR above). I also discovered that BSE's acquisition of Camel Bay's Jedney/Nig area in 2015 was priced (unadjusted for risk) at CA$2,421/acre, $8.89 per 2P BOE (with WTI $60.14 and NYMEX Gas at $2.41)
Going to take 30 days of production though to prove ... something CE1 isn't set up for (are they?). Not sure how useful IP24 hours is.
From PONY recently. My bolding
"The company drilled two Lower Montney horizontal test wells from a single pad to vertical depths of approximately 2,000 metres and lateral lengths of approximately 1,900 metres.
The first well averaged an estimated production rate of approximately 3,600 boe/d, 41 per cent liquids, during the initial 24 hour test period of stabilized production flow. This production rate included 12.7 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 1,475 bbls/d of natural gas liquids (85 per cent condensate).
The second well averaged an estimated production rate of more than 2,300 boe/d, 39 per cent liquids, during the initial 24 hour test period of stabilized production flow. This production rate included 8.6 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 900 bbls/d of natural gas liquids (82 per cent condensate). The flowing pressure of the well during the initial 24 hours of the 14 day test period was 2,300 psi through a 9/16-inch choke.
During the final 24 hours of the 14-day production test period the d-E57-H well averaged a production rate of over 2,275 boe/d (38 per cent liquids) including 8.5 mmcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 865 bbls/d of natural gas liquids (82 per cent condensate)."
Might not be useful though because its the lower Montney and we are testing Upper and Middle.
Sit back and let the drillers do what they do best.
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