If I'm reading correctly, then I agree it won't be exploration that gets the company to 8c, it would be the value of P1 that does so. Even if you assume another billion shares are issued to fund it, that's still a market cap of less than $400m. Entirely achievable if a 5,000tpa plant is making $50m pa in NPAT. Not particularly earth shattering. It won't happen overnight, or even in a few weeks, but it isn't a ludicrous price target.
As for the rest of the points:
1) PEG 9, Moriarty and Lemare were duds, Alvarroes is solid enough to underpin P1 and Youanmi is too soon to tell. 1, possibly 2 out of 5 isn't bad for exploration at all.
2) No. That's why they have gone back and started drilling further at Alvarroes. Also, see Joe's comments here:
"As far as Portugal is concerned it is inappropriate for me to say more than what is in the public domain. We’re involved in a commercially sensitive negotiation and have made considerable headway, which has provided the confidence to commence the next stages of feasibility study activities. It is important that Lepidico gets the best outcome for its shareholders and management isn’t going to capitulate on important terms for the sake of satisfying a desire for short term news flow."
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/communications.4566443/
Those comments mirror what Gary said to me at the AGM, as well. Progress is being made, but it's Portugal....
Also this from the announcement on the 20th December
4. Lepidico continues to hold an exclusive / pre-emptive right until 7 March 2020 to effecta commercial relationship with MCS with regards to ore supply from Alvarrões including sale of ore or concentrate by MCS to Lepidico, and / or the right for Lepidico to develop and operate a lithium mica mining and concentration project at Alvarrões. MCS and Lepidico are well advanced in agreeing commercial terms and under certain circumstances it is envisaged that these terms will convert to a joint venture arrangement. The final arrangements including commercial terms are subject to Board approval by Lepidico and MCS
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02061932
3) Yes, that's how the prospectus or the CR allocated the funds. Pilot plant has priority over all else.
4) Yes, offtake and finance were highlighted as the critical items for the remainder of the financial year at the AGM.
5) Yes, getting to being cashflow positive is the priority of the business. It's literally the first line of the strategy that is on slide 2 of the AGM presentation.
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02050828
Nothing after point 2 has anything to do with Youanmi; this drilling doesn't slow down the pilot plant, it doesn't delay P1 and it isn't a distraction from getting to positive cash flow.
The exploration provides LPD with possible sources of supply that a) helps underpin negotiations with third parties and b) helps underpin moving from P1 to P2 as fast possible. P2, and full-scale production, is the goal.
The strategy is to make sure the company doesn't end up building a plant and then getting caught with its pants down when miners play hardball for supply.
If Youanmi can deliver 1m tonnes, like the first resource at Alvarroes has, that's still something. That's at least a year of supply for P2, or 5 years for 5000tpa P1. That's worth putting your foot on if it is cheap to mine.
Cheers
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