Wow; I think the issue is that some people are fixated on looking at the situation today, rather than looking ahead and factoring in the cost profiles and adoption profiles associated with disruptive change and exponential growth.
Google Tony Seba and get schooled on how this works.
EVs for the mass market have barely started. The tipping point will come sooner than the so-called experts think.
Go research phones, cars, cameras etc.
Economics will drive this so much faster than many realise.
You really believe what MS says??!! Haha that's gilarious after their utter bs stories last year relating to pricing and oversupply.
For giggles, let's take their 31% figure for a moment.
That's about 30 mllion vehicles.
That's about 1.5 Mtpa of battery grade LCE.
Are they saying this supply is coming online by 2030? Ok, let's go with that for a sec.
That's about 1.3 Mtpa MORE than is produced now.
That's 26 NEW mines producing 50 ktpa LCE.
By 2030.
Twenty six.
But the batteries need to be made, and the mines need to ramp up.
So, these mines need to be in production by 2028..?
So, 10 years.
That's 5 NEW mines @ 50 ktpa every 2 years.
FIVE.
Every TWO years.
Let's make a list of who these might be.
C'mon, it'll be fun.
Do you really think we can get that list assembled..?!
Oversupply..?!
Yeah right !!!!!!!
Btw, I do think that a 30% penetration by 2030 is low, based on the cost trajectories of batteries and economies of scale of EV production and solar generation. BUT I still can't build that list to work out where the +1.5 Mtpa of LCE will be coming from.
My guess is that lithium prices will rise significantly and a whole lot more operations will be fast tracked to meet the exploding demand that will take shape over the next few years.
Swift and brutal.
Forget about $20k battery packs and $13k power walls. That is changing rapidly; very rapidly.
Tony Seba. Watch.
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