EV's have been around for nearly a decade now. There was a large uptick in Telsa sales in Q3 and Q4 2018 as the federal tax credits expired on 1 Jan 2019. The Chevrolet Volt was canned recently with palty sales performance over the last 8 years of 150K sales, less than a months sales for the top brands. Of the top 20 vehicles in the US almost all are large SUV's and pickup trucks, Tesla only made it into the last list as Tesla buyers rushed to take advantage of federal tax credits.
I am not against EV's, I am just maintaining a sense of rationality. This is one area where I would like to see real proof before I drink the kool-aid.That's about 30 million vehicles.Probably closer to 27 million since we don't currently produce 100 million cars per year.
That's about 1.5 Mtpa of battery grade LCE.
You seem to use 50 kg LCE per vehicle in your calculations but around half of all BEV's are PHEV's with only 10kWh batteries. PHEV's wil become more important for larger vehicles. A PHEV would probably have closer to 9kg of LCE, a hybrid even less. Being charitable let's knock your LCE content per vehicle down to around 30 kg LCE (the PEV/PHEV average). 27 million cars at an average LCE requirement of 30kg LCE is 810 ktpa which brings the rest of your capacity ramp up requirements down somewhat. There is almost 300 ktpa of announced capacity additions on top of the current 230 ktpa which by my more modest assumptions would only require additional capacity announcements of 300 ktpa, I am not even sure that the analysts have included PLS planned addition of 130 ktpa at end stage 3 and 94 ktpa for the GXY SDV project.
Not saying you are wrong but slight changes to assumptions can change the economics a fair bit and the implications of being wrong when it comes to ramping supply of a resource over 200% to meet "projected demand"will not be slight.
