Originally posted by trentwilliam
By 2030 there will be a sheet load of lithium mines pumping the stuff out and most major car companies will be about 100% EV... So it won't be just the luxury cars by then, it will be the whole fleet of basically all majors. Plus those $80,000 cars will be 2nd hand cars and way cheaper.
pluuuus those $100 per week fuel bills will be $10 electricity bills therefore a $5000 saving per year.
Plus you also have the countries that have announced that their roads will be 100% EV... So once they are on board and the major car companies too then the countries that don't put a date down will sort of be forced to fall in line.
So basically, pretty soon the cost will be around about the same as a normal car (once the whole fleet is electric and once there is enough lithium out of the ground to handle it) but at the same time with $5000 savings per year, people will be easily able to afford them.
Even the lower class, imagen how easy it will be to pay a car loan or lease when the person is saving $100 per week to those will ICEs..
To think that this is always going to be $80,000 is stupidity. That's like thinking that big screen TV's were always gonna cost $10,000 when they first came out.
Ohhhh and also with no exhaust, engine, gear box etc the mechanic bills will also be few and far between
EV's have been around for nearly a decade now. There was a large uptick in Telsa sales in Q3 and Q4 2018 as the federal tax credits expired on 1 Jan 2019. The Chevrolet Volt was canned recently with palty sales performance over the last 8 years of 150K sales, less than a months sales for the top brands. Of the top 20 vehicles in the US almost all are large SUV's and pickup trucks, Tesla only made it into the last list as Tesla buyers rushed to take advantage of federal tax credits.
I am not against EV's, I am just maintaining a sense of rationality. This is one area where I would like to see real proof before I drink the kool-aid.
Originally posted by GCar
Wow; I think the issue is that some people are fixated on looking at the situation today, rather than looking ahead and factoring in the cost profiles and adoption profiles associated with disruptive change and exponential growth.
Google Tony Seba and get schooled on how this works.
EVs for the mass market have barely started. The tipping point will come sooner than the so-called experts think.
Go research phones, cars, cameras etc.
Economics will drive this so much faster than many realise.
You really believe what MS says??!! Haha that's gilarious after their utter bs stories last year relating to pricing and oversupply.
For giggles, let's take their 31% figure for a moment.
That's about 30 mllion vehicles.
That's about 1.5 Mtpa of battery grade LCE.
Are they saying this supply is coming online by 2030? Ok, let's go with that for a sec.
That's about 1.3 Mtpa MORE than is produced now.
That's 26 NEW mines producing 50 ktpa LCE.
By 2030.
Twenty six.
But the batteries need to be made, and the mines need to ramp up.
So, these mines need to be in production by 2028..?
So, 10 years.
That's 5 NEW mines @ 50 ktpa every 2 years.
FIVE.
Every TWO years.
Let's make a list of who these might be.
C'mon, it'll be fun.
Do you really think we can get that list assembled..?!
Oversupply..?!
Yeah right !!!!!!!
Btw, I do think that a 30% penetration by 2030 is low, based on the cost trajectories of batteries and economies of scale of EV production and solar generation. BUT I still can't build that list to work out where the +1.5 Mtpa of LCE will be coming from.
My guess is that lithium prices will rise significantly and a whole lot more operations will be fast tracked to meet the exploding demand that will take shape over the next few years.
Swift and brutal.
Forget about $20k battery packs and $13k power walls. That is changing rapidly; very rapidly.
Tony Seba. Watch.
That's about 30 million vehicles.
Probably closer to 27 million since we don't currently produce 100 million cars per year.
That's about 1.5 Mtpa of battery grade LCE.
You seem to use 50 kg LCE per vehicle in your calculations but around half of all BEV's are PHEV's with only 10kWh batteries. PHEV's wil become more important for larger vehicles. A PHEV would probably have closer to 9kg of LCE, a hybrid even less. Being charitable let's knock your LCE content per vehicle down to around 30 kg LCE (the PEV/PHEV average). 27 million cars at an average LCE requirement of 30kg LCE is 810 ktpa which brings the rest of your capacity ramp up requirements down somewhat. There is almost 300 ktpa of announced capacity additions on top of the current 230 ktpa which by my more modest assumptions would only require additional capacity announcements of 300 ktpa, I am not even sure that the analysts have included PLS planned addition of 130 ktpa at end stage 3 and 94 ktpa for the GXY SDV project.
Not saying you are wrong but slight changes to assumptions can change the economics a fair bit and the implications of being wrong when it comes to ramping supply of a resource over 200% to meet "projected demand"will not be slight.
