the next fmg..., page-10

Citi and others are forecasting Aluminium prices ~$2/lb for 2010, but even at $1.5/lb for LME and Alumina selling at ~13% LME, thats ~$420/t, which means importing Bx at $100/t and being profitable for an alumina refiner is a real possibility. For a combined alumina/aluminium complex it would be even more attactive. The economics of Bx shipping could work and this stock could seriously be more than a trade.
On top of the Bx down south, comparing the old Pacminex and CSR reports on the muchea/chittering tenements (red hill, goyan pool, etc..) north of the Alcoa 1SA lease (read outside)to the tenements that overlap with BAU, a back of the envelope calc shows there is alot of Bx. The 30M tons quoted in the last BAU literature seems conservative, but I guess they have to be. Some of it was drilled on a tight grid too. As dunlop said, even without any more tenements granted there is enough there for a project.
CSR did have a sizable exposure to alumina by the late 70's - they ended up investing in the Gove refinery in the NT. Given the choice of the 2 projects, Gove would have been a better option, but you can't get Bx with 50% available alumina today. Tax holidays, etc.. may have helped the decision aswell.
The Darling range Bx is not without it processing issues, but some of the chinese producers have some options to recover some of the cost penalities and also get at the alumina in the goethite. This is what the muchea refinery had scoped, but even without a combo plant that you could squeeze ~3-5% more out of a High temperature Bayer only plant by using it as supplementary Bx for an attractive incremental cash cost.
Looking forward to some announcements on resources and MOU's