TRS (ASX) Ann: Trading update

Originally posted by kittyboomboom ↑

Originally posted by LongtimeW
I think your trading range needs to take into consideration if there is a dividend paid or not. No dividend and yes falls back to $2-$2.70 (subject offer still on table).

If dividend in April is 24c then it will be subject to what margin of safety the % return the payment is over the purchase price dropping after the payment and franking credits.

I have noticed over a number of years the banks/super funds coming in and out for the payment and the share price driving higher after payout only to retreat months later before end of financial year.

I think you will see $4-$5 trading range if dividend announced. Now how this changes the offer who knows but it may draw out other offers with conditions that prevent a dividend payment.

Any cash generating business with no debt over the next two years will be in high demand especially if they can get back to a true discount outlet model. With the punters tightening purse strings in recession mode this business could see turn around if they get the model like similar businesses in North America.
Personally I think the most sensible move for TRS management to make is suspend the dividend and instead buyback shares, put a bid on market at about 10 cents above the offer price, announce that it will be in place for a year and let Allensford make a real move.
They may be patient but not that patient and I don't think an on market order for 1m shares at $2.80 would trigger any sales, probably safe to lift it to $2.90.
There would be absolutely nowhere for Allensford to go, at this point the ball is in our court, we need to place it squarely back in theirs.

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Good creative, proactive thinking that would transfer some much-needed pressure to the bidder, and galvanise them into some kind of action.

Our company has been a sitting duck since this bid was announced, with no pressure whatsoever being experienced by Allensford.

Unfortunately, the will to do something like you suggest involves TRS management being sufficiently creative and motivated to actually maximise investment returns for shareholders.

There is zero precedent for that so I'm not sure what might be the catalyst for it now.

The directors of our company have not even shown the faintest hint of any sort of proactive initiative in relation to this takeover situation.

I think they simply wish that Allensford will somehow all magically go away and they can go back to their state of slumber.

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