CMR is going to have start up troubles. Note they said they were still training staff. These are Territorians and blow-ins from other hydromet plants, working a new and unfamiliar plant, which is fairly unique in producing cathode copper and intermediate Co-Ni products, and we think this will be like digging iron ore? Pffft. Of course there will be ramp up wastages, outages, and product specification issues.
Doesn't matter - a poor quarter is not going to stop CMR going up. I agree with Olympian on the price breakout, though I'd pick it at $3.22, which we're nearly at. So, you've got till Thursday next week I reckon to top up below $3.22, or else you'll be paying $4.
As for the valuations...well, EPS and PER is how Huntleys values it. But it's clear that a $150M mill and hydromet operation on this ore body was actually pretty damn cheap. With the strength of the other ore bodies, and the sulphides, and exploration upside, if you put any of that on top of the NPV calculated from the oxide plant ($740M) you easily top $6 a share. It's going to get there, hiccups or not.
CMR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held