FMG 2019 Analyst Consensus, page-9

This is the pertinent question - it's always good to get dissenting views when we're bullish about a particular investment. 

Goldman's target price and sell rating is based on NPV derived from forecast future prices. They predict 7% higher EBITDA this year compared to last (very much underdone IMO, given recent prices and discounts) and then for earnings to crater in the next two years with a decline in 62% FE to US$60 / tonne.

IMO the problem with this is two-fold

(1) it assumes no tendency of the market to dampen a long term fall in prices via supply contraction, and

(2) it ignores the likelihood that grade discounts will narrow further if prices fall.

As we've seen over the past 6 months, trying to predict prices and discounts is a mugs game anyway.

For me FMG is a buy up to the mid $5's. Not as much as it was in the $3's, and it's a shame that the market didn't allow more shares to be bought back near the bottom.