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Why I am participating in the SPP, page-56

  1. 3,430 Posts.
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    LOLZ at some of the enthusiasm here.  I suspect many haven't actually thought this through, or previously seen an SPP done this way.

    Some things to consider.

    The final price is tied to a VWAP that you can't calculate until your money is in.

    The final price is tied to a VWAP that can easily be manipulated.  AVZ averages maybe $250k of trading a day. 

    The final price is tied to a VWAP that many would benefit from manipulating.  Is it worth torching say 20% of that x 5 days pushing the sp up by 20% over the VWAP calc period?  That would come at a cost of $250k but decrease dilution by an equivalent $2m.  So, some would benefit hugely from such manipulation.

    There are 10k shs in AVZ.  If all apply, that's $150m.  The SPP is capped at <7% of that.  Not everyone will apply, but you're not going to get anywhere near your full $15k worth.

    Invariably on issue day for SPPs structured like this, there is a big dump.  So even if the day before, you are looking at a 20% gain, that is all but guaranteed to largely disappear on issue day.

    GLTAH (and that includes me) but go into this with your eyes open, not blinkered.

    FD 
 
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