Mortgage Choice (MOC) Time to buy ?, page-217

So if labor says to the banks to pay  1.1%- let's call it double what the brokers currently get. (In reality, its not double as some lenders pay more than 0.55%- but for this exercise, let's call it double.
MOC earnt $ 7.45 m net in its upfront commissions in the last set of f/data. (23% of the gross.)
Let's also assume they continue to get that 23% of the doubled upfront income (I'd be betting on this coming down though as franchisees also won't have any trail from new deals going forward so they'll want more if the upfront.
So income goes to $ 14 9 m - based on the best scenario from two assumptions.
plus say $3 m other   = $17.9 m income
less op expeneses           15.2 m  (hard to reduce these without taking away the benefit of being a franchise)
bottom line - pre tax        2.7 m  against the $10 m just reported.  
Big reduction just off these figures without allowing for the fact that there will be less upfront income as there'll be less brokers in the franchise group (their personal incomes going forward will also take a hit compared to the past).  Not to mention the other headwinds currently facing the industry. 

I'm not a shorter and I'd like to be more positive on this one.