Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-22

Here’s a bit of a timeline of what happened in early 2011 in case anyone is interested in looking back to when NRW HOLDINGS was at a similar  price to now:
In the main I haven’t posted links .
They are easy to find by back checking the dates on HC.

2011:

6/01/11 -price was $2.11 when a $35 million contract extension with Rio in Simandou was awarded.

11/01/11 - $2.24 when $50 million Middlemount coal project was awarded

9/2/11 - $2.45 at Half Year Guidance:
“Based on management accounts, net profit for the half ended 31 December 2010 is expected to increase by approximately 30% (to approx. $20million) on the previous corresponding period.”

18/03/11 - $2.46 - FMG contract for $27.5 million -bulk earthworks and concrete package at Anderson Point Port Expansion.

23/02/11 - $2.44 -HY accounts :
Revenue of $358.3 million
o EBITDA of $48.5 million, 13.5% of revenue
o EBIT of $32.0 million, 9% of revenue
o Net profit after tax of $20.4 million, 5.7% of revenue o Strong cash position of $40.9m.
o Interim dividend of 4 cents per share.
o Net Debt / Equity of 8%
11/03/11 - $2.50 - NRW to buy fleet of Queensland equipment Comiskey ( some for Middlemount)

15/03/11 - $2.49 - AMP substantial holder

18/03/11. - $2.58 - CBA substantial holder

21/03/11 -$2.60 -  $101 million contract Rio Cape Lambert  JV with Ngarluma and Yindjibarndi Foundation Ltd (NYFL)

25/03/11 - $2.85 - increase substantial holder  AMP up from 5.09% to 6.09%

31/03/11- $2.93 - CBA no longer a substantial holder

31/03/11 - $2.89 - AMP still buying - up to 7.63%

14/04/11 - $2.85 - contract Middlemount: $780 million ($120M to $145M capex)
“FY11 revenue target of at least $700 million, which represents a 15% increase on the previous corresponding period.”

14/04/11 - investor presentation - cap raising for Middlemount raising $70M at $2.74 a share

15/04/11 - $2.85 - cap raising completed

14/04/11 -$2.85 - AMP up to 8.73%

21/04/11 - $2.90 - Aviva Investors  down from 6.08% to 5.01%

22/04/11 - $2.90 NB Salvatore01 post https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/8306522/single
NRW  mentioned that it was on track to achieve its 2010/11 revenue target of $700 million.

But it expected 2010/11 net profit to be at the lower end of the range of $40 to $45 million due to the impact of wet weather.

Assuming a NPAT of 40-45mil which is the guidance by the company due to weather the share price is fully valued at 2.44 not inculding the 25 million new shares that are to be issued. if the newly issued shares are accounted for in my calculations i would have a full value of $2.25 suggesting that the current share price is on the HIGH side. but keep in mind have not accounted for any new business.
18/05/11 -$2.62 - BHP contact $158M rail duplication and earthworks and marshalling yard
“This award takes NRW’s secured workload for next financial year (2011/12) to approximately $800 million out of a total order book of approximately $1.74 billion.”

30/05/11 -$2.85 UBS arrives on the register (UBS has a reputation for shorting) 5.46%




That’s as far as I got .
The price closed at $2.58 at the end of the calendar year but on the way it went back down to $2.26 level;



From the naive perspective and just going as far as May 30, 2011, the funds were playing leapfrog and @Salvatore01  was TOTALLY on the money