Because of mathematics instead of just blind credulity...
All below is my personal calculation based on hypotheticals because of the lack of official information, which SAS should be more forthcoming with in the first place, feel free to debate the numbers:
To my knowledge, SAS is to use cubesat deployer by D-Orbit, below is some information about what, presumably, is the deployer:
Presumably, each canister can only hold maximum of 16 pearls each. I think this is the main reason as to why SAS settles with the number of 16 pearls, no more, no less. In case you are not convinced then I will elaborate more, step by step:
So 12kg × 16 pearls? 192 kg total. Each D-orbit cannister weigh around 100kg as per the information I gave you before. So the total weight of cannister + 16 pearls? 292kg, which is cutting it too close to the maximum payload of each virgin orbit rocket.
So now I will ask you, how many cannister can SAS fit into a single virgin orbit launch? Based on my calculation, the answer is one simply on the weight limit alone.
Pearl cost is what? 750k to 1 million each, so 37.5 million to 50 million, just for the pearls.
Launch cost? Like I said, I believe SAS could only launch maximum 16 pearls per launch by means of virgin orbit, so SAS would need at least 3 to 4 launches, lets assume 3 launches. So how much would those launches cost in total? So 30 to 36 million, lets say 32.5 million USD, which is 46 million AUD. So total cost needed in 2019 to launch 50 pearls? Including gommspace payment of 3.2 million for the CDR, director salary of ~1.1 million and other operational cost of say 8 million?
50 million for pearls + 46 million for launches + 3.2 million + 1.1 million director fee + 8 million expenses = 108.3 million AUD, is the amount needed to launch 50 pearls in 2019...
So I will humour you lets say just 16 pearls in 2019, which I doubt SAS has enough money for anyway. What is the plan after? Still 2020 schedule? So 184 pearls in 2020? Assuming that virgin orbit is ready? Okay, lets calculate, HOLD ON TO YOUR CHAIR, the number is insane:
For the pearls 138 million to 184 million....
For the launch 184÷16, because remember maximum launch of 16 pearls per rocket, so 11.5 launches needed at 10 to 12 million USD per launch. A launch a month...which already ludicrous on its own. So total cost just for launch? 115 to 138 USD, which is 163 million AUD to 196 million AUD.
So total cost if launch 184 pearls in 2020? 301 million to 380 million including pearls....current market cap? Around 60 million.....
Crazy numbers right??? That is why personally I think the whole project is just unfeasible...that cost you have to add costs of ground stations, end user devices, terminals...etc
To me the project is just...well impossible....
All my calculation of course so feel free to debate but in my view, things just wont happen...
