Here's something I dug up that I'd love some opinions on (or correction if I've got the wrong data or math).
Type "Afterpay IPO" and you'll get an interesting few headlines and data points:
"Shares in Afterpay (ASX: AFY) have rocketed 30 per cent above their initial public offer price to $1.30 this week as the latest fintech startup to hit the ASX boards receives support from investors willing to bet big on its future success." And this "In February 2016 underlying merchant sales were more than $2.8 million and Afterpay’s revenues on those sales were more than $100,000."
When I read that, I read it as Afterpay's market cap at that point, with $2.8M in merchant sales for the month (or $11.2M quarterly) and $100K sales (or $400K quarterly) was 238M shares outstanding x $1.30 which is $309M.
Upon listing, we see these data points for Splitit from the recently posted article:
"At the end of January, the company said underlying merchant transactions for the fourth quarter totalled $US31.7 million, up from $US8.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2017..." And this "During the 2018 fourth quarter, the company said its average order value was $1050 and it had 118,000 unique shoppers, generating $423,000 in merchant fees that quarter..."So at similar times in their listed lives, Splitit merchant sales were about 3x those of Afterpay's on a quarterly basis and their revenue about the same (which I guess makes sense because Afterpay's margin is 2-3x Splitit's).
Now that same article quoted Splitit's market cap as $450M. And Afterpay's was $309M. I know there's a difference there but it's not like one is $450M and the other was $50M or $100M. And look at what the other one has become, closing in on $5B!
So, unless my math is totally wrong or it's late at night and I'm making crazy assumptions, why is this so controversial (as the article states)? If Afterpay was in such a similar position and had such a similar valuation (which at the time I recall everyone saying was totally nuts!) yet has since gone up close to 20x from there, why is there so much negativity and doubt?
To date the paths have been remarkably similar (noted Splitit 'started' a lot earlier but they spent a lot of time on patents and correcting their model no doubt. They perhaps did a classic 'pivot' to a better model which is only now just starting). If they have a quarter of Afterpay's success, is it not fathomable that this quickly becomes a billion dollar company (let alone APT's $4B+ status) in which case the share price would be circa $3.50?
Would love feedback from this forum please of why this is likely, why this in unlikely, what is right with above and what I have missed with the above.
Let's try to give both sides please, not down ramping or spruiking based on nothing. Thx.
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