valuation on osh lng, page-8

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As anticipated there's some profit-taking in OSH today after yesterday's big rise. Given the exercise of some 12m Call Options this morning it is possible that this was the motivation behind some of yesterday's rise.

Some of the rise was also IMHO due to the STO/Petronas deal. And today Origin has used both a big rise in reserves AND the STO/Petronas deal's CSG valuation to claim that BG's bid is too low. They say the latter deal significantly upgrades the value of CSG reserves for LNG.

So my thinking is that the market yesterday was also punting on a move by STO on OSH. The above brings up the other possibility and that is that BG may now look at OSH rather than raise their bid for ORG. All conjecture of course .. but I note that BG did say when they made the initial bid that they had looked at several other companies and that included OSH!

Watch this space (for further consolidation activity in the O&G sector)

H