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Ann: Operational and Corporate Update, page-22

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  1. nk
    3,116 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 142
    Still to much risk with the debt, its pretty well a "workout"

    at 5c market cap will be $50million but add the debt of roughly $70m and EV around $120million. Cash flow from say 150,000 ounces of reserves will be used to repay debt, assuming the reserve grade is right

    lets say they now have 500,000 ounces of reserve after depletion and errors so that leaves 350,000 ounce reserve to produce positive cash flow after debt repayment.
    Assume around $500 margin ounce and pre tax cash flow is just $175million, discount the future cash flows take off some tax and you end up around $100m NPV on my very rough back of the envelope workings, maybe $150 million if you get really lucky

    That is if everything goes right

    so you take all this risk at 5 c to maybe double your money.

    Forget it. Better form elsewhere

    I got stopped out in this at 50c. Stop losses rule.

 
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