confusion surrounding octaviar debts, page-17

Hey researcher

I feel for you. We get literally no information....in fact...we are the last to get info and in the form of very well scrutinised ASX releases.

We have media reports but they are notorious for wanting to just release write-ups based on other media reports and as we have seen....they can get tangled in their own Chinese whispers.

It could be another 2 months...about the 3rd week of July before we really get the juice on OCV as thats when Korda is meant to be finishing his report on OCV.

I dont like the situation. I am suspicious of Korda (any one remember Korda and greyhound travel service)...but they are in their now and until OCV kicks them out or he finishes, I think we are in for another 6 weeks of no knowing anything.

I for one dont really care anymore. I am interested to see how it pans out but can only expect the worst now so am expecting OCV to not relist and be put into administration.

Or if it does relist, a major white rabbit needs to be pulled from the OCV boards butt.

There remains only one massive problem....one we have seen with CNP, CER, ABS, AFG and others who were too highly geared when the sub prime crisis hit and that is ..."will creditors agree to wait for their money".

We all know this is the crucial question and basically decides OCV's fate.

All up I think around $550 million is required.

OCV's 25% stake in Stella if sold would cover that...even now.

But selling that off means OCV is a shell of a company.

If OCV is placed into administration by its creditors now...its estimated they will get between 9 and 15 cents in the dollar.

The theory is...if they agree to a 3 year wait...they will get 90 to 100 cents in the dollar.

Its in their best interest to agree.

However...with OCV dealing with the creditors.....we have to understand that the new OCV board / Chris Scott are meeting with company's that previously were dealing with Michael King who left a trail of destruction, lies and deceit.

These talks which are going on now will be notoriously uneasy as the new OCV board need to convince the creditors to give them a chance.

However, I personally think King may have rubbed up Challenger, NAB etc in a pretty bad way and there is a good chance that these creditors just wind up the company.

NAB's debt is only 40 million. Whats 40 million to them?

Packers Challenger OCV debt is only 100 million. Whats 100 million to a guy with a personal wealth of 6 billion?

Both these creditors could simply go "stuff MFS / OCV...lets just wipe them out".

We all lose then but NAB and Challenger wont really feel the hit...they perform either way and can just write it off.

Its a tense time for us, the OCV board, every OCV employee, the creditors....but not something thats worked out over night.

Anyway..enough ramblings from me....just trying to say hang in there as we have possibly another 6 weeks or more to patiently wait for news on which way the creditors ant to push OCV....over the cliff or into Friday nights business drinks and a good bonding to yield some kind of agreement.