ann out, page-27

well I don't really know much about that but I do know that at the close of yesterday AFG were trading at .46. When I looked later the close was .44c.
I have been trading this stock regularly for the last three months so I watch it all the time.This intrigued me because I had been watching the stock trade all day.

At around 2 the price was pushed down and there were a couple of trades at.44 and .445 but it quickly went back up to .46 but then there were 3 trades at .51 in the middle of trades .46. It was really odd. Someone was trying to get the price back up but clearly didn't succeed niether did the person who wanted it to go further south cause it hovered around .46 until the close.

The trade at the end of the day after the close at .44c was cross trade and they all went through at exactly the same time right down to the second..You can see it on the Course of sales if you have access. At the end of the day there was plenty of depth on the sell side at .45 and .455. Why sell at .44 and who bought them?

I have two ideas and I must stress that they are only my opinions based on what I have observed and what I have read.

If you think about it no one wants to be the last seller especially if you are a shorter. You need people to sell you shares at lower prices than you sold to close out your position at a profit. The people who are going to sell can only be those who already hold or those who plan to also go short.

Those who hold must have either bought them at a higher price but they wouldn't be too keen to sell at a loss especially when they had started to recover. Or they bought them in March when they dropped down to 20c but surely only a fool would still be holding shares they had bought under .40c and hadn't taken profits. Still there could be someone but there wouldn't be too many.

Those who plan to go short at these low prices, especially when the price is approaching such an important line of support which has already been tested several times wwould have to be pretty confident that prices would go right down to make a profit. That's the trouble with short selling ...it has a finite end...0c

So what happens to the person who is the last seller or say shorter. There's no one who wants to sell to him so he has to pay higher prices and buy back at a loss or figure some way to get those who already hold to sell.

Did you notice that last week on the 22nd the price hit a low of .42 but found support and closed at.46c? Then it started to rise on increasing volume until the 27th then it started heading south again.

A lot of traders would have placed their stops at bottom of the bar on the 23rd or there abouts based on the closing price. ie as long as the price doesn't close below that price say.455 then they stay in the trade. Traders all read the same books and use the same techniques. so if you are aware of this method of trailing stops then you can take advantage of it.

There will be traders who will have seen that end of day price and will sell first thing at the open. There is quite a big spread between the bid and the ask at the moment.

But who will snap them up? It can only be those who believe the price will go up and either want to close out their short position or go long.

there my thoughts anyway