Profit taking, page-37

Short answer is 2bn which is ~$10 per share. Based on them doing $20bn of transactions in FY 2022 and not considering the execution risk.

Full rationale is too long to explain, here is the simple version.

Their NPAT will be ~1% of transactions - so $200m in FY2022. Then as a semi mature business it trades at PE of 30 so value is 6bn. Discount 6bn to PV @10% rate so ~4.5bn.

In order to do this sort of volume, they will need to have more equity to support the borrowing. My estimate is that the current sharecapital will be diluted to 50%. So current holder get a valuation of ~2.25bn.

Now all figures are just approximates and not precise calculations to the last digit it is a ball park figure.

How I arrive at NPAT at 1%.

	GMV	100
1	Merchant fee	4.0	4%
2	Late fee	1.0	1%
3	Revenue	5.0
4	Cost of Sales	1.25	1.25% based on past years and my experience of the industry
5	Bad Debt	1.25	Industry loss is ~1.5 to 2%.
6	Staffing & Other cost	1	Need to resource for call centre and collection activities.
7	NPBT	1.5
8	Tax	0.5	30% tax
9	NPAT	1