The stock's just unloved. 60pct decimation of value from its highs cannot be just attributed to a credit crunch which has really not impacted the local banking sector as much as its international peers.
You can see the daily patterns, opening on a weak auction, and gradually dying by a thousand cuts during the day, as sellers overwhelm the buyers, no one with enough dosh is willing to take a view on this, and there are plenty with dosh that WANT to get out of the sector, or short it if you will.
I think any rallies are going to be capped. At least until a catalyst emerges for the market to look aat it differently from what it does now, perhaps a roadshow presentation, or some major corporate activity, or an appointment of someone stellar and experienced in public relations/corporate relations. Generally, i think there are alot of hurting holders, who are scratching their heads, but are not prepared to stand in the way of a steaming train, while the bigger end of town probably bought and sold a million times over on the way up, and now are caught in perhaps a leveraged position above 14/15 and are forced to close out.
Either way, no bounce until catalyst emerges. And believe me, I have these shares all the way from the ipo. Not sold a share. Its easy to regret now. But when I look at Fortescue, and think about my 10000 shares at 3 dollars which I sold for 4, I cry every night.
BNB
babcock & brown limited
