Share price discussion, page-117

What EBITDA per share is needed for 25 cents, 50 cents a dollar? What about the debt, current life of mine and costs to implement stage 2 or later stages?

26 - 40 cents per share for current state of play would be realistic and toward the upper end would I’m sure get over the line. More likely these valuation metrics would be used for a 33-49% JV to clear debt and get stage 2 funded. Entirely plausible for Ganfeng or Livent to contemplate to lock down high quality near term supply. A major issue is the availability of material with the current offtakes in place. If JRO and Lionergy weren’t in place we’d be a far far more attractive target for takeover/JV as things stand only really Ganfeng might be interested and they’ll need convincing that stage 1 can deliver to nameplate before stumping up cash for further development (they won’t want to risk their funds getting sucked into fixing stage 1 and costs then blowing out for stage 2).

Remember all output except the second half of stage 2 is spoken for until I think 2021. If the company can struggle by on cashflow and if the spod price holds steady the high risk/high reward route is to not sign deals and have high volumes available to satisfy a whale like VW or Ganfeng as an exclusive partner.

Its also the route to setting up as a take over target. If AJM is a proven producer of high quality spod with 220,000 to 440,000 tpa output abd little of it spoken for heading into 2021 then some serious bids would line up.