Ann: Ovens in Production Trials, page-16

First 16 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Hottin

6,470 Posts.

349

17/04/19

14:02

Post #: 38182045
Share

Originally posted by throwerw ↑

Do you have any insight as to why the last quarter net income undershot your last model by so much?

Working backwards, your new model suggests they were doing $5m per month or $15m for the quarter in revenue. If we assume that NPAT is the same as EBIT due to the tax assets, then the operating margin would have dropped significantly from 29% in H1 to 12% in Q3. There may be multiple explanations for this but they still dont seem to be enough to cause such a severe contraction: price drop or lower ASP for XP powder and reduction in gross margin, significant increase in operating expenses, or no recognition of the tax assets in their announced results. I suspect that the model is just too aggressive but cant explain why given the limited disclosure.

Not that anybody here cares about pumping up the price in the short term but I think the volatility of late is clearly due to disappointment or at least confusion over the last set of results. Nobody really knows how to model it correctly now because disclosure was too selective.

On the plus side, if we make the bare minimum assumption that the net income run rate will double with a doubling of production, the stock is cheap and no further growth is factored in to the current valuation. I hope it's closer to your model but not necessary to keep buying here.

Expand

I am sure they will push the sales now, I expect rather less coz I want to be surprised on the positive side . If the NPAT is $6m I am happy but $7m sounds better .
I think that Vestro is right about this quarter, the numbers should be really good.

ANO Price at posting: $4.26 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

NIM

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

I88

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

AII

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

MDI

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

There are more pages in this discussion • 36 more messages in this thread...

First 16 Last

Add ANO (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 72.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $44.96M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
72.0¢	72.0¢	72.0¢	$14	19

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	56779	72.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
73.0¢	5000	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	56779	0.720
1	425	0.705
1	455	0.655
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.730	5000	1
0.750	921	1
0.785	3036	1
0.790	500	1
0.800	26001	1

Last trade - 11.20am 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

ANO (ASX) Chart

Ann: Ovens in Production Trials, page-16

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: Ovens in Production Trials, page-16

Top Stories

Nimy to raise $1.21M to explore 'newsy' WA targets

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Bitcoin investors need to know the risks

Almonty locks in govt agreement for tungsten oxide plant in South Korea

Nanocap Middle Island Resources kicks off Barkly copper-gold drill run – a potential IOCG-style NT project

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News