NRZ (ASX) The times are interesting

Originally posted by Asterixr: ↑

Dear fellow LCK shareholders
We are I suggest on the cusp of some interesting announcements. The first issue I would like to discuss is the alleged toxic gas contamination of soil and groundwater by Linc Energy. This garbage gets repeated ad nauseam and like good quality garbage, if you repeat it often enough it becomes conventional wisdom.
Fact: The allegations of the Queensland Department of Environment and Science HAVE NEVER BEEN TESTED IN COURT. At the time that the allegations were made and Linc was to appear in court, the Administrator of Linc at the time decided not to provide the company the funds to defend its position in court. As a result there was no defense provided in court when the matter was presented so Linc is guilty as charged. This is what everyone keeps repeating. Well things could get very interesting after May 17, when Mr Bond will front court to face criminal charges relating to Linc's alleged actions. The difference this time is that there is Directors insurance available, so some allegations will be tested in court for the first time. Lets see how the media report this matter.
I read the AFR article. What the journalist is say is "I don't know how to assess this stock" and the analyst that were contacted and mentioned are saying the same. Obviously they don't know how to value the company because no other ISG project is operating. I suggest the analysts do some work, populate some spreadsheets and forecast what is possible. They do that all the time. By saying that they don't know how to value the company they are confirming that they have done no work on the company. Amusing how many buyers ran for cover on the back of the article. I suspect the clients of those analysts will be less amused when they discover what they have missed because the analysts didn't bother to do the numbers.
LCK has said that they are talking to potential buyers of syngas, so it should come as no surprise when an announcement to this effect is made. The 'lost in the wilderness' analysts will then have a benchmark to work on. Any offtake agreement will include a quantity, a duration and a price usually. This will be a price that a commercial player is willing to pay. Also, and I have mentioned this before, LCK is unique in that it can drill and JORC additional coal reserves and expand its 2P reserves. Furthermore, the current 2P reserve estimate of 1,153PJ was based on only one of LCK's three coal seams. Theoretically, the resource could be 40% to 50% higher.
For valuation purposes, I like to keep it simple. Assume 1,153PJ and an indicated offtake price of $2/GJ as a benchmark. That gives $2.3bn, divided by 520m shares equals $4.43/share. Assume that ONLY 30% is recoverable. I like to be conservative. That gives a minimum price of $1.33 per share. Happy to wait for announcements.

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It is easy to make a cash flow model based on a bunch of assumptions. The trouble with assumptions is that they make an ass out of u and me.

What is your basis for an indicated offtake price of $2/GJ. Can you elucidate what gas price, capex, and opex assumptions are involved? Similarly where does the 30% recoverable come from? Recoverable of what?

The trouble that the analysts have is that no-one knows these numbers, there are no benchmarks to go by, and the attempts with this technology have failed so far.

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