Several points that go to the viability of your thesis.
First, it's clear that WF management and AL detest one another. It also appears clear the Lynas management team are close and a solid unit.
So how do we interpret Japanese (ie Sojitz + JOGMEC) comments supporting not only Lynas as a business, but Lynas management?
As we near the end of the period when Lynas have supply obligations to Sojitz, and a time when it's clear that Lynas is on the verge of substantial capital spends (cracking & leaching & ?? in Australia) which scenario do you think they'd prefer:
1. Finance Lynas existing debt and expansion activities, extend supply guarantees and continue to work with a management team they know, respect and trust OR
2. Watch Lynas be taken in a hostile takeover by a begomouth with cash to burn on expansion, management cleanout and no relationships or loyalty or intention to provide any guarantee of supply??
I think their public statements imply a very clear preference.
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