Ann: Nifty Reset Plan, page-36

  1. 11,625 Posts.
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    All this is in Aussie dollars below.
    If you have a look at the last two annual reports in the segment section, (FY18 pg 79, and FY17 pg 73), you can see that about $19.8m was shipping and refining expenses (and Cu price "slippage") out of $180.1m of Nifty revenues. You can work this out because they changed their definition of segment revenue in FY 18. They sold 24,828 t at an average Cu price of $7168 (I get AUD $7,253). The shipping and refining etc cost $800 per t, if the timing doesn't mismatch. In the FY 18 report on page 12 the cost (diff between realised Cu price and copper price) is $779 in FY18, and $713 in FY17. I'm not sure if the transport or price slippage was included in that figure - probably not I suspect. So I take the $800 - add inflation to 832.

    Anyway - my Nifty numbers. Obviously based on todays Cu price. They seem impressive to me. I doubt there will be any company tax payable on this for quite a while. I think these numbers would be great if they happened.
    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5
    0 My Nifty numbers year 1 year 2 year 3  
    1 Cu price USD 6395 6395 6395  
    2 Cu price AUD 9007 9007 9007  
    3 Cu price realised post ship and refining 8175 8175 8175 at 832 per t costs
    4 AISC 7450 6750 6650  
    5 margin after AISC $ 725 1425 1525  
    6 production (t in conc) 26500 33700 34700  
    7 "AISC earnings" $m AUD (prod x margin) 19.2 48.0 52.9  
    8 Project capex 17.6 5.3 4.1  
    9 regional exploration 2 7 7  
    10 FCF $m -0.4 35.7 41.8  

    I think it is a good plan - they just have to do it obviously.
    Last edited by CaptainBarnacles: 01/05/19
 
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