re: my calculations for anvil
""20,000 tonnes of Cu = 44 million pounds 1.24 - 0.4 = 0.84 44,000,000x0.84 = $US 37 million or $Aus 46 million
As Miningnut stated that's a forward P/E of 2 at current share price."
Wrong also. If As Brenden says, there are 206m shares on issue, PE is closer to 5 than 2.
MINUS -- Royalty payments. MINUS Tax. MINUS Interest Payments. MINUS Depreciation And Amortarisation. MINUS"
Do you know what you are doing kgtom????
A P/E is price to earnings not earnings by shares on issue. AVLs market cap is currently $96.82 million ($0.47x206million) 96.8/46 = 2.1 THAT is the P/E
I wasn't intending to have to highlight every caveat in my figures but if you insist...
Last quarterly productions costs were 51.4c per pound, and I quote 'includes all mine operating costs, concentrate transportation costs,smelting and refining costs and realisation costs', the previous quarter was 45.4c per pound. We know that the December quarter was mining lower grade ore and involved disruptions due to stage 2 development so I will use the previous quarters costs as being representative. From the above quote and for the benefit of the doubt the smelter royalty is not included, it is however approx 6c per pound over the next 2 years.
Since transportation and smelting are the major expenses (off the top of my head transportation was approx 12c per pound, smelting was approx 8c) then halving these costs (due to higher concentrate levels, less transportation and smelting charges) saves 10c per pound. Realistically then 45.4 + 6 - 10 = 41.4c per pound production costs (now inclusive of smelter royalty)
Point 2 there is no tax from the Congo side of things, I'm no tax expert however so what happens on the Aussie side of things I'm not sure.
Depreciation and Amortisation is a way of reducing taxes, has nothing to do with profits generated. We're looking at cashflow here.
AVL do have a loan with RMB that they are paying back at $500,000 per quarter. Put another way: 5000 (tonnes of Cu per quarter)x2,200 =11 million pounds of Cu. From this we have: $500,000/11,000,000 = 4.5c per pound of production is load repayment
Taking this into consideration we now have:
20,000 tonnes of Cu = 44 million pounds 1.24 - 0.41.4-4.5 = 0.781 44,000,000x0.781= $US 34.4 million or $Aus 43 million
or a PE of 2.25
Apologese for my previous oversight. If you want to have a go at these figures please include your own. I've shown all working so that they may be analysed and disputed.
