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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Where to from here?, page-46

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maxava

154 Posts.

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12/05/19

20:53

Post #: 38527747
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Originally posted by ericson ↑

Personally, I’d like to see NF list us on LSE and quickly. You could speculate all day long on TO/HTO but something’s not quite right in my mind with regard to this. If we assume for the moment that Huayou et al want this cheap via a HTO then why haven’t they moved in for the kill earlier ???? And my suspicions will grow if we stay at 4c and the months drag by.

Possible reasons:

1 they thought the CR would fail and HTO is now imminent
2 they still think they can get less than 8c by just waiting for hoped financial collapse
3 the HTO is risky as it may backfire and this risk increases as the months go by
4 negotiations and agreements with Drc powers and interested parties behind scenes are not complete

I think initially it was 1 and 2 but now I think 3 and 4 are in play . NF is at a low point but with all the negativity of the delays out of the way he will rise from here with each piece of news . If 1 and 4 then time is running out fast .

My personal opinion is that it’s 3 and that the optimum HTO moment has now passed . I think there is some disagreement between the parties behind the scene on the resource and it’s divi up , pricing and choice of end-user consumers . I think that a HTO without stmt of arrangement is risky as as soon as they do it there hand and intention is shown . My prediction given the scale of the resource is that the sp would rise to close to TO price and then huge buying would come in from around the world . The sp could easily rocket above the TO price and back up to 30 40 on pure speculation of counter bidding . Whatever the sp went to speculator greed would want more and more for the resource and may vote down (heavily) any low ball offer . The Chinese are then truly stuffed as we all know what they want and will make them pay heavily for it . This is what I think they are afraid of and are having a rethink since 1 fell through and their first option of scoop for nothing failed . I wonder if they are still bragging that they have this in the bag . I’m sure they’ll have been attempts behind the scenes to get the Drc powers to take off Avz but NF is well connected , liked and working well with DRC ... not everyone is pro Chinese out there and the Chinese know this and don’t want to suffer a general backlash.

I think the Chinese will actually go for a stmt of arrangement with Avz snd Drc once all the behind the scenes agreements are sorted and huayou and their co parties agree the spoils . Huayou are unfortunately not cash rich enough to do this on their own much to their own annoyance .

I think NF has the measure of all this and contrary to what all the shareholders might think , he has actually outwitted all the Chinese and the behind the scenes parties . They now realise that he is strategic and may well have done really nasties in store for them if they get hostile with him. Really , we don’t know how lucky we are having NF in charge ... the Chinese would love him out of the way and better still if we did it ... cut own throat springs to mind.

So there you have my opinions and thoughts . The assumption was that the Chinese want this for as little as possible . I don’t want to spend any time pondering whether the Chinese may not want this or whether they are happy to pay full and fair price .

IMO huayou are planning something with other Chinese parties and the longer the delay the more likely a statement of arrangement . A hostile offer if it is to come will come in the next three months ... let’s say by August ... but as I’ve said the Chinese won’t like the risk over swallowing a premium stmt of arrangement price . I think the money for stmt if arrsngrmnt is already there but huayou don’t want to use it as it dilutes their control , CATL and others in the meantime are getting fed up waiting . This is just what I guess is going on .... I can just imagine the tensions going on. Maybe we are just waiting for the Chinese to sort this out. the other problem I think huayou have is that they have bey heavily on nickel (far too much). That was a big big mistake as that money should have gone to Li (see recent posters articles on the life limit on nickel when Li-ion evolved to solid state and Li air) .

All of this is just my guesswork and I could be completely wrong . I really don’t know anything for sure and yet I feel there is something like this going on. .....

Good luck fellow longs and speculators and remember to always hold out for top prices as when/if a HTO comes you then know that you own something massive that someone massive wants and needs at all costs and will make a massive profit out of .

AIMHO AIMHO

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Hi Ericson, great post & totally agree. I don't post to often but do read most of the posts. I am a large holder of AVZ & I think you've nearly nailed it. Just a couple more 'maybes' imo are that maybe both Huayou & Dathomir don't have the money to make a move right now. Imo Huayou did try & starve avz out. Maybe NF did the capital raising this way because all the offers they had the others wanted to much from it. May might will be an interesting time with the likes of airguides contract expiring etc. What happens then? Maybe we might find out in June when Nigel is in the USA. Imo I do think that there will be a HTO, and within the next 4 weeks. I believe this because the more the sp rises with some positive announcements the harder the TO. I'm thinking Nigel might have this covered anyway (hopefully)! Also imo, I think the companies that are or might be looking at avz are not overly concerned with the DFS or the transport report because they will be or are doing there own analysis. Maybe a company already in the DRC would be a great fit as they already know how the DRC operates & $$ are not a problem for them.
I'm thinking the next four to six weeks will be enlightening. It's been a long & strenuos road for the long term holders, but remember pressure makes diamonds!
Good luck to all holders. And all IMO

AVZ Price at posting: 4.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
39 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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