Here's some interesting assumptions on oil prices on the recent Euroz bpt report.
Valuation
Our valuation is $2.02/sh
The valuation is an npv (10% nominal, after tax and capex) of our forecast cash fl ows.
We have forecast an oil price of US$102.5/bbl, US$95/bbl and US$85/bbl for FY’09, FY’10 and FY‘11
respectively and US$80/bbl fl at thereafter. Our A$/US$ forecast is 0.94, 0.91 and 0.88 for FY’09,
FY’10 and FY’11 and 0.80 fl at from FY’13.
US$ 95 and 85 for 2010 and 2011. Anyone reckon these are too conservative? Will there be an oil elephant to be discovered, will China ( and India, Russia and Brazil) stop their development? Should be : 110, 120 and 130 for FY 09, 10 and 11.
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