Sorry Tibbs,
I was struggling with my Excel last night..it went funny..
Let me start again.
(1) COSTS: The costs are unclear.Whilst last year, mining costs were $68 tonne, that was the first full year of production. One would think the mining cost may fall with increased economies of scale. Therefore the spreadsheet below reduces the mining costs to $60 a tonne.
(2) EPS: Not sure why I used 950M shares. Spreadsheet below reduces the shares on issue to the current 820M fully diluted. GNM will spend $65M in CAPEX over the next 2 years. They should be able to finance through cash flow or borrowings.
(3) INTEREST: Their loans are not excessive therefore in the spreadsheet below, I have removed the interest costs.
(4) DISTRIBUTION COSTS: The recent annual results mentioned distribution costs of $15M. I am unsure what they are so I simply doubled them. Who knows? They could fall.
(5) DEPRECIATION: Based on current plant plus addition $65M in forecast CAPEX, depreciated at 0.065% per annum.
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