Ann: STX: WE2 Update Rig Mobilisation, page-69

Yep that double bottom is taking form now, and some pretty solid hammering of 13c to fish for stop losses, test resistances and weak hands. Hopefully it holds. Pretty thin run up to 17c for the moment so it could turn quickly when the time is right.

Something to consider in terms of current fundamentals: the COS. If you believe in the brokers conservative estimate of 20-30%, we are probably at a fair price at these levels, given we were valued at 63c/share on a successful gas discovery ie 20-30% of 63c is 12-18c.

If you believe the analysis by WGOs partner STX that places the COS at 69%, then a more realistic value is around 40c+.

Consider this: in terms of technical analysis about a specific gas well, who is more likely to be right? The O&G guys with an intimate knowledge of geological modelling that came up with 69% looking at the well we are specifically interested in? Or the broker who is making a conservative call based on historical averages for other "similar" wells at 20-30%?

I work in predictive analytics, so I'm accustomed to dealing with data & probabilities. With respect to a COS calculation though, and assuming all involved are good at their jobs, I will take the estimate of the O&G guys with intimate knowledge of the well I'm interested in over a broker's conservative estimate based on averages from other wells.

But thats just IMO.