I have had a quick look at the Ashford HCC tenement, its location and seams. For HCC the seams are quite deep suitable for UG mining.
LNY's first option of getting the coal to market is FOB Brisbane via "B Doubles"
My very rough guesstimate on costs are: (IMO)
-mining: $80/ton
-road transport to Brisbane $50/ton ( 1.5 round trips/day per 9 Axle B Double for $2700 , payload 42 ton )( 26 trucks needed for 500K T/P/A)
-port storage/loading $7/ton
-FOB cost $130/ton approx
-Current FOB price HCC: $180 approx#
-gross margin $50/ton approx
Mine life: 25+ years.
At 500K T/P/A, this would produce a gross margin of $250 million p/a; say net of $230 mil .That's about 7 times the current market cap and at a P/E of 10, 70 times the current share price or 63c
How long will it take to production?
How much will it cost to production?
Your guess is as good as mine!
What do others think? I'm sure that there are coking coal and transport experts out there who could provide more accurate guesstimates?
IMO, it would be better for LNY to seek a JV partner and settle for a mining royalty of say $10/ton and concentrate on gold.
# I'm awaiting feedback from a friend who is a coking coal specialist with an opinion on Ashford's coal quality/FOB Brisbane price
IMO, it is not economically feasible to sell Ashford coal as thermal @ $86 USD FOB.Brisbane ($121 AUD)
-My HCC guru has got back to me with an Ashford estimate of 85% of the Qld HCC benchmark FOB price.
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