media trying to pump the property market, page-48

No worries to all requests, I'll email to all requestors tonight when I get home.

Miles, my plea to you was to be honest about your track record in these matters because the way your posts are currently structured, a false impression can be given.

Whilst I am impressed with your financial and tax knowledge (I am sincere in that) emphasis on it is misleading to readers.

In essence the message it gives to readers is "hey I am very knowledgeable in areas of finance so if I say property values will fall dramatically you had better all listen!"

All I am asking you to do is to temper that message with a disclosure that you have been making the very same prediction for many years now, about 5 years on hotcopper I think, and you have consistently been incorrect.

It's OK if you tell them that you may have been wrong all those years but this time is different because ... , as long as you let them have the whole picture. They can then decide how much to listen to what you are saying.

Having said all that, I have to be curious about your personal resolve in this matter. Surely you must be having some doubts about your judgement by now? I know that my own life is riddled with self-doubt, I am forever feeding back results into my original forecasts and finding where I went wrong.

What I have found is that too often when I have made unqualified strong statements I have ended up embarassed when the world refused to bend to my will, it went its own way.

So I am curious. What effect on yourself? What observations have you made about your own methodology in forecasting events (property related), what modifications have you made?

You have to admit that it is an extraordinary track record you have established, is there a straw that will break the camel's back? Is there one last disappointment, one last rise in property which will finally make you realise that you are just plain wrong?

I urge you to go back to my posts where I have explained the bottom up (fundamental) reasons for rises in property values here in Australia. The social decisions we make as individuals which roll up to create the market we see around us are what one needs to monitor. Until those social decisions change then things will continue as they have done.