greater volume infers direction change, page-16

I am sure there are quite a few who are suggesting I am just a pessimist and ramping everything down as a consequence.

While I do see a period where we will cop it hard, my scenario has been that we will have a short hard hit into Oct/Nov here at worst but then do OK maybe into 2011 or even 2012 while much of the western economies are doing it tough earlier.

Then I do see a year or two of bad times for resources probably culminating in a July 2013 deep market low.

If I am wrong and we experience a prolonged period down now beyond Oct/Nov then that scenario would need to be reevaluated.

Maybe we just keep on booming, but all booms have their pauses and it probably is asking too much for straight line action.

We still are the lucky country in the best position re resources and with one of the soundest economies and good management compared to most.

IMO, I think a break here for six months is probably the pause that refreshes, so I have no problem with those who see a lengthier resource boom.