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Understanding lithium demand, page-488

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8horse

34,340 Posts.

9122

20/06/19

09:29

Post #: 39145951
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Originally posted by Sjlasx ↑

To avoid my concerns of being taken out context I'll restate some of them based on my research. I'm not prepared to simply take your CEOs statements as gospel.
It is my understanding that the road from Luambo to Manono has already faced significant delays. They have encountered issues regarding access to private property for road construction material, and in some sections have used completely unsatisfactory materials which needs large sections replaced. There have also been issues with the width of road in some sections. The biggest concerns are whether the unsealed road will hold up in the upcoming wet season - I believe it starts late October in that region of the DRC. This will be its first major test. The Lubambashi Likasi section has long been sealed from my recollection. I am not prepared to underestimate the scale and complexity of the task needed to complete the road between Luambo and Manono. I believe it will be completed and sealed but not in the timeframe most are expecting.
If and when the Piana Mwamba hydro electric power facility is completed I expect it to be capable of 32MW output. Some suggest it could be boosted to 40MW but I'm not convinced. To put this in comparison, the Wodinga spodumene converter has stated a need for 60MW to power a 5.6mtpa operation. Where the additional power to support a 5mtpa Manono operation will come from is unclear from my research. The Piana Mwamba hydro facility will likely have additional users and there is some distance involved in transmission. Again timeframes in the DRC based on personal experience are extremely optimistic and rarely met. If you disagree compare the AVZ January 2019 presentation timeframe chart to the most current one that is regularly reposted.
Taking your advice that Nigel Ferguson should have much more experience and understanding of what is achievable as a CEO, I restate my concerns about his announced preference for a Lithium Hydroxide plant on-site at the Manono pit. Other posters have referred to the large power requirements of a Hydroxide Plant and although you assure me that power will be no issue, I have my doubts. Other posters have suggested a Lubambashi location is more feasible for transport and power and I agree with that sentiment.
Suggesting that a relative lack of a skilled Li chemical workforce especially if the plant is located in Manono is a legitimate concern. Manono is not comparable to Lubambashi. Compared to developed chemical industries in mainland China I absolutely question how a DRC Hydroxide plant will be a competitive alternative.
I believe AVZs competitive advantage lies in the areas most posters regularly highlight. The size, grade, and ease of extraction which should entail low production costs despite high transport costs could make it one of the most economical feasible spodumene projects on earth. There is no disagreement there. I have concerns the production costs are perhaps understate when compared to spodumene operations commissioned on the last 5 years and how far off their costs are from their scoping studies suggested. I believe extravagant plans for what may be described as one of the world's largest Hydroxide plants are a distraction from AVZs Manono project key advantages.
Having concerns like the ones I have just repeated and an actual understanding of how things operate in one of the most corrupt jurisdictions on Earth are legitimate concerns. Social stability in a land yet to extinguish pockets of fighting remaining from 25 years of warfare is a genuine concern. I don't believe I have an elementary understanding of the DRC and the way things operate on the ground there.
If you actually read some of my posts, I have tried to articulate some of my understanding.
I don't believe I should be accused of under researching or treated like some racist who believes the whole congo population is incapable of performing intelligent work and just trapped in a jungle.
We disagree with many issues, by my concerns are honest and legitimate and are absolutely not a case of sowing FUD.
Please feel free to prove me wrong but show me the respect I endeavor to show you. Having an opposing view doesn't make me the enemy. IMHO one of the greatest tools of HC is having deeply held investment beliefs challenged.
I respect 99% of you, is it too much to ask to be treated decently in return?
DYOR and feel free to challenge mine in a civilized manner. Some of us have already had some great debates together on the AVZ threads. I look forward to the prospect of more in the future. Many of you have provided me with very insightful responses and information.
GLTAH

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I hope you’re genuine and you’re not under-researched.

Just a little information on the Hydro Dam (courtesy to @Dr_Manhattan)

* Geomines built. Pinana-Mwanga started up in 1933 with a capacity of 35MW.
* Extended to Piana-Wanga II which started up in 1958 with additional capacity of 3X7.5MW = 22MW for a total of 55MW
* Originially had 83km of powerlines to Manono (381 strainer pylons, 33 semi anchored pylons), 3 x 95mm copper cables = supports 120kV with 5.1% loss. Likely damaged and scavenged
* AVZ announcement (11/17) states that room exists for 64MW of capacity. AJM's 220kt 6% spod operation running of 11MW of generators.
* Dathomir and Cominiere to spend US45M to rehabilitate hydro dam.

BTW, can you please keep this thread for related topic?

Last edited by 8horse: 20/06/19

AVZ Price at posting: 5.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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