NST 1.52% $14.30 northern star resources ltd

Fundamentals haven't changed, page-727

  1. 12,259 Posts.
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    I am not deliberately ignoring anything.

    I am just quoting the current market value of the company's in ground reserves based on the company's stated current JORC2012 compliant reserves. If investors want to pay A$1,803/oz for gold which has a reasonably good chance of economic extraction and which is still locked up in the ground and which will take up to the next 4 years to turn into refined above ground gold bullion, that is up to them, personally I think it is stupid to do so.

    The question of replacing reserves is another argument. IMO The chance of NST replacing reserves for 10 years based on an 850koz-900kozs annual production profile and the assets the company owns is very very slim IMO. Most of NST's assets are ageing, getting deeper and more difficult to drill because of depth and/or the impediments imposed by UG drilling. The big push as far as proving resources and reserves at Kundana, KB and Jundee has already happened. Take a close look at the mines. Also see my previous post where I highlight the rate at which DCN proved up its reserves over a 7 year period.

    Dacian was able to increase its reserves by 1.253M oz over 7 years, ie at an average rate of 179,000 ozs per year. NST will need to prove reserve ounces at a 5 times higher rate than DCN has done just to maintain its production profile and that is year after year. NST's management have boxed themselves into a corner but everyone seems to believe that trees can grow to the sky, that gravity doesn't exist.

    Look at NST's historic rate of reserve replacement and reserve growth, it is nothing like 850koz to 900kozs per annum. If I get time I'll go through the history of ore reserve statements and production and prove to you that adding reserves at a rate of 850kz-900koz is not achievable based on historic rates of reserve growth. Esh
 
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