Running discussion on SP, page-20317

EV revolution is inevitable.
Lithium, white gasoline, will be Strategic to China, imo.

People's Daily Overseas Edition: "Change the way first" China's auto machine is not lost
2019.06.21 04:15:42 People's Daily Overseas Edition
"Change the way first", China's auto machine can not be lost (brand theory)

In the past few years, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, India and other countries have announced that by 2040, the domestic market will completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles. As the list continues to expand, more and more people are beginning to admit that the tide of new energy vehicles has arrived.

In the field of new energy vehicles, China is one of the countries with the earliest layout and the most efforts. For China, the development of new energy vehicles has at least the following considerations.

National energy security. China's energy structure is "less coal and less oil," and the oil self-sufficiency rate is not high. In 2017, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest oil importer, and the import sector accounted for about 75% of the annual oil consumption. Automobile fuel is the "big head" of oil consumption. The fast-growing Chinese economy is bound to bring about a growing number of cars. In the future, only car fuel will create a huge demand for imported oil in China. Today, with the changing international situation, vigorously developing new energy vehicles can reduce dependence on imported oil and contribute to national energy security.

conservation of ecosystem. There are various pollutants and greenhouse gases in the exhaust of fuel vehicles. Automobile exhaust is considered by scientists to be one of the reasons for the increasing greenhouse effect and frequent smog pollution. Although countries have repeatedly promoted clean gasoline and increased emission standards for motor vehicles, pollution is still inevitable, just a matter of quantity. New energy vehicles can basically achieve “zero emissions”, which is undoubtedly more beneficial to ecological environmental protection.


Industry catches up with opportunities. In the era of fuel vehicles, the engine + gearbox is the core technology of the fuel car. Since the second industrial revolution, developed countries have accumulated hundreds of years of technology accumulation and formed extremely high patent barriers. It is difficult for the late-developing countries to easily break through. Chinese local car companies have been trapped in “transmission barriers” for many years. However, changes in the technology track have also brought about changes in the rules of the game. In the era of electric vehicles, the gearbox became a dispensable thing. The battery + electric motor + electronic control system is the key to making a car. Suddenly, the spring breeze came, the Chinese auto industry was able to start again on a track that was not far from the developed countries, and saw the opportunity of “overtaking the curve” or even “changing the way ahead”.

The environment is good, the general direction is clear, and the rest of the road depends on the company itself. In recent years, with the strong support of national policies, a number of local new energy vehicle companies in China have risen strongly. They can be basically divided into two categories: the first category is the traditional car companies cut into the new energy "battlefield", such as BYD, BAIC, Geely and other enterprises; the second category is the transformation of Internet companies from the "new car power", such as Weilai, Weimar, Xiaopeng and other companies. But no matter what type of enterprise, if you want to settle down in the tide of new energy vehicles, you will eventually return to the core technology.

The rapid development of BYD in both domestic and international markets also proves this. BYD started in the battery industry and has 100% independent research and development, design and production capacity in the battery field. Therefore, when the era of electric vehicles came and the power battery became the core technology of automobile manufacturing, BYD's technical accumulation for more than 20 years was released. In January of this year, BYD participated in the "Key Technology of Lithium Iron Phosphate Power Battery Manufacturing and Application Process" project won the second prize of "National Science and Technology Progress Award". BYD founder Wang Chuanfu said that he has a “technical fish pond” and he will fish out when needed. "Technical fish ponds" bring product advantages, and BYD electric buses and other products that are sold overseas are the "big fish" in this pond.

Today, China's new energy automobile industry has also reached a crossroads. On the one hand, the state subsidies are adjusted, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles should be driven from policy-driven to market-driven; on the other hand, foreign new energy vehicles such as Tesla began to “land” in China, and market competition intensified. This will require more domestic Chinese new energy vehicle companies to improve their internal strength, focus on core technologies and improve product quality. I believe that after the test of the market "three real fires", those real gold can still shine.



Sina Finance


Chen Qingtai: The replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles will have an inflection point around 2025

China Financial Information Network
June 21, 16:19
Chen Qingtai: The replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles will have an inflection point around 2025

Xinhua Finance Beijing, June 21st (Reporter Cao Wenzhong, Anna Shengqin) At present, China's new energy automobile industry has started a large-scale subsidy for subsidies. According to the national plan, by 2021, the subsidies for new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn, and the door to opening up will also open wider. After years of self-development of the new energy auto industry, how confident is the challenge, whether it can stand the test of the market, and what is the future direction of the development... The reporter recently interviewed Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100-member Association.



The picture shows Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Association

China's new energy vehicle technology route is recognized globally

Reporter: Looking back on the development of new energy vehicles, what do you think is the most important achievement we have achieved?

Chen Qingtai: The industrialization of new energy vehicles, we have been going for 10 years. The biggest achievement is: Practice has proved that the energy storage battery technology route we choose is feasible. In fact, various countries and large automobile companies attach great importance to the development of new energy vehicles. Toyota of Japan has done a good job in hybrid power, and has taken the lead in new breakthroughs in hydrogen fuel cells; Europe and the United States have identified hydrogen fuel cells; we have taken a different approach based on national conditions and identified energy storage batteries, pure electric drive technology. The route was dominated, which was a big risk at the time. After 10 years of hard work, this technical route has been recognized globally. This has given our company a very valuable time window of nearly 10 years, which has enabled us to win the first-mover effect of “changing the way ahead”.

Today we have the most complete industrial chain in the world, and the power battery industry is also ranked as the world's first echelon.

In the course of the development of these 10 years, no foreign experience can be used for reference, but it has formed a powerful force. The major enterprises pay more attention to this round of research and development, and the human and financial resources invested are unprecedented. Some enterprise R&D teams are mixed with engineers at home and abroad, and they lay out R&D institutions in the world, recruit talents, and have a large overall R&D capability and level. The steps have completely changed the situation of relying on the introduction of technology. This change has also enabled us to stand on a relatively active position when the door to opening up is further opened.

The electrification, networking and intelligence of new energy vehicles require a large number of cross-border technologies and enterprises to participate. Some Internet companies and electronic information companies participated in the early stage of large-scale participation, which made China's electric vehicles introduce information and intelligence factors earlier. This is also an important reason why electric vehicles in China are increasingly favored by more consumers.

In addition, new entrepreneurs, especially entrepreneurs from the Internet, have actively participated in the formation of a new "power of the car", which has become a major feature different from other countries. Entrepreneurs of different genes have different understandings and definitions of future cars, and different considerations for future production and management methods. On the whole, the influx of new entrepreneurs has enriched people's imagination, broadened their thinking, brought new technology, and also forced and promoted traditional car companies.

The era of non-subsidy should be positively viewed by foreign investment

Reporter: At present, China's new energy vehicle subsidies have fallen sharply, and by 2021 subsidies will all be withdrawn. What do you think of the development prospects of new energy vehicles and the adjustment direction of industrial policies in the non-subsidy era?

Chen Qingtai: From the development history of China's new energy automobile industry, the government policy is the first driving force in the initial stage; after a certain degree of development, it is the policy promotion and the market promotion; now it has moved from “policy promotion + market promotion” to “ At the stage of market promotion + policy promotion, the financial subsidy will be retired. However, some non-subsidy policies still need to be retained, such as the double points policy.

After the subsidies have subsided, new energy auto companies will face challenges. It is worth noting that the current market is composed of models affected by subsidies. After the subsidy has retreated, whether the composition of the market-approved models will change, the car companies should make a good pre-judgment. After the subsidies have retreated, foreign-funded enterprises will exert more pressure to increase the competitive pressure of Chinese auto companies. But this should be positive. The competitiveness of products and companies is tempered in the competition. China's electric vehicles have already passed through the gestation period. If we want to make progress and re-development, we must re-emerge in the competition with domestic and foreign capital.

Stay ahead of the curve and must strengthen the advanced research and development of key technologies


Reporter: What do you think is the most important issue in the development of China's new energy vehicles and power battery industry?

Chen Qingtai: I think the most important thing is research and development. As the core component of new energy vehicles, power batteries must have advanced research and development to prevent the disruption of technology once they are over. In the past 10 years, an important factor supporting the rapid development of China's electric vehicles is that China's power battery technology has made great progress year after year. But technological progress is endless. Objectively speaking, the current power battery can not fully meet the needs of electric vehicles. The world does not know how many companies and research institutions, and how much financial resources are invested to step up research and development. To maintain China's competitiveness in this field, we must not relax research and development work, the investment in research and development can not be reduced, the government should support advanced research, enterprises should be close to the deployment of research and development.

In addition, both energy storage batteries and fuel cells are important and should not be neglected. Some time ago, the media promoted hydrogen fuel cells, and many people thought that energy storage batteries would fade. This judgment is very unprofessional. The mainstream consensus at home and abroad is that both the energy storage battery and the hydrogen fuel cell itself are zero-emission, but they have different strengths in different usage scenarios. For example, in the field of small or short-haul vehicles, energy storage batteries have advantages; in the field of large or long-distance vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells have advantages. The two are complementary rather than substitute relationships. At present, from the perspective of technical economic maturity, energy storage batteries are ahead. Both technologies must be emphasized and research and development must be strengthened.

New energy vehicles will replace the fuel vehicles before and after 2025.

Reporter: When do you think that new energy vehicles can replace traditional fuel vehicles?

Chen Qingtai: The traditional fuel car and electric car will ultimately rely on the power of the market. This is a long process and cannot be as fast as a smart phone instead of a feature phone. There are several factors driving:

One is the price/performance ratio of the entire life cycle. Electric vehicles have high purchase costs and low operating (fuel) costs. For example, in the fields of long-distance mileage such as taxis, shared cars, and logistics vehicles, the advantages of electric vehicles are obvious, and it is possible to cross the economical price/performance ratio earlier. Some cities have converted taxis into electric cars, and the income of taxi drivers has increased.

Another driving force is that electric vehicles have better affinity with network, intelligent, and autonomous driving, so that consumers have a new experience. Some people have a preference for this and are willing to spend more money to become a buyer of electric vehicles.

Moreover, the operation of electric vehicles is zero emissions, which makes it a priority for urban public transport, and has become an option for some environmentalists to buy cars.

In addition, the fuel vehicle carbon emission standards are getting higher and higher, the R&D and production costs are getting higher and higher, and the electric vehicles are reduced in cost after large-scale production.

In general, around 2025, these kinds of driving forces will continue to exert their strength. At that time, the power of the market will promote the turning point of electric vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles.

New energy vehicles will become a powerful "mobile smart platform"

Reporter: What do you think is the future direction of new energy vehicles?

Chen Qingtai: The automobile industry is entering the biggest change in more than 100 years. Because of its wide coverage and wide range of influence, it can be called the "automobile revolution." Electrification is only the prelude to this round of automobile revolution. The potential to fully release the future car to benefit the society depends on green, network, intelligence and sharing. Because connected with the automobile revolution are the energy revolution, the information revolution, the transportation revolution, the travel revolution and the smart city. The future electric vehicles will be a powerful “mobile intelligent platform”, which will become the basic unit of intelligent transportation and smart city; it is a node that connects green energy, smart grid, next-generation mobile communication and future travel.

It is estimated that in 2030, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 15 million, and the automatic driving of different levels is basically popular, with 80 million vehicles. This forecast must become a reality, involving the adjustment of energy structure, the construction of smart grid, the upgrading of transportation infrastructure, the support of a new generation of mobile communications, the adjustment and transformation of the industrial chain, the transfer of jobs, and the adjustment of laws and regulations. The magnificent industrial revolution. Each aspect is a huge systematic project that has a long cycle and affects the whole society. These are all necessary for industrial development and cannot be achieved by enterprises alone. To this end, the government needs to plan ahead, do top-level design, give the market and society the expected expectations, and advance in an orderly manner. In this sense, it is wise for the government to set a timetable.

(This article is from Xinhua 08)