Ulysses mate - it's all happening...
Agreed it's gone from ICE -> Hybrid (more Ni) -> EV (more again) -> Lithium converts to Ni chem -> NMC 1:1:1 -> more and more Ni rich chems - I think the Tesla's are at NMC 17:2:1 now?
And Xrsism mentions concerns about miners ramping up production.
But have a look at Jehosephat's stats... and I honestly think they're perhaps even conservative...
Everything I can find on EV sales shows exponential growth.
Across global sales - not just China and Tesla.
But let's say that Je's linked data is correct and that by 2040 there are 56M sales - I mean I hardly want to model it - because I don't think people really get what it means... But here goes:
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 Year M EV Sales kt Ni 1 2016- 1 40 2 2017 1 40 3 2018 2 80 4 2019 3 120 5 2020 4.19 167.6 6 2021 5.38 215.2 7 2022 6.57 262.8 8 2023 7.76 310.4 9 2024 8.95 358 10 2025 10 400 11 2026 13.6 544 12 2027 17.2 688 13 2028 20.8 832 14 2029 24.4 976 15 2030 28 1120 16 2031 30.8 1232 17 2032 33.6 1344 18 2033 36.4 1456 19 2034 39.2 1568 20 2035 42 1680 21 2036 44.8 1792 22 2037 47.6 1904 23 2038 50.4 2016 24 2039 53.2 2128 25 2040 56 2240
(I'm not smart enough to model the data properly - I just used linear growth between the stated data points).
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 Total 587.85 23514
So using Je's NMC chem of 811 at say 40kg of Class I Ni per car - you can see that in 2040 alone there will be the requirement for 2.2 million tonnes of Class I Ni alone.
To give you some idea - in 2017 ~650kt of Class I were produced. And a total of 2.2Mt of Ni of all types produced in the year in total!
![]()
We are saying that by 2040 there will have been over 580M EVs sold for a total combined Ni used of 23.5 million tonnes of Class I Nickel!!!!
To put this in perspective:
![]()
That's something like a full one quarter of the combined existing world's Nickel Reserves - consumed (much less dug up and processed etc) in about 20 years!
And that just gets us to being used to EVs. Presumably there is continued used and possibly even further growth going forward!
So to address Xrsism's point - what would an orderly production and consumption of that much of a commodity look like?
Maybe Mad Max where the oil tankers are road trains with Ni Sulphate in them? Or the Oil Depot towns are old EV Battery Recycling plants?
Well may Elon Musk say he's going in to Nickel Mining... For the possible ways to fulfill this much requirement he may as well use Space X to mine asteroids...!!
I think the only way to seriously expect to fulfill this much requirement is to change the chemistries - maybe a carbon graphite solution built in to the body of the car?
But until then, say the next 5-10 years?, I would expect the Ni Price to jump. Pretty much like any commodity boom and bust cycle - but one for the ages...
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