Cmon, As always, thanks for the maths & analyticals....I actually got to paragraph 5 of your analysis this time before I had to start "back reading" to get a hold on things..."Gas-Speak" is unfortunately not offered on Duolingo.
Your two scenarios offered are both succinct & compelling. My take home read from your post is that with 2 wells, our cash-flow starts going backwards after 3 years, and with 4 wells, we start going backwards after 6 years. We'll need to keep stoking the financial furnace to keep things going.
In one of my posts around 3 weeks ago, I referenced your comment (from memory) that "Saguaro has approx. 80% of it's potential reserves un-tapped", or something to that effect....
Reading your Saguaro reference at the time was like being hit with the reality baseball bat...Why would Saguaro (or anyone else for that matter with un-developed reserves) pay a premium for CE1's lands? The "land-flip" concept for a premium was effectively "killed off" for me. I've since diluted approx. 70% of my CE1 holdings, despite the near 60% capital loss. As painful as it may be, I have no desire to be yet again the "Deer in the Headlights", which comes with watching potential train-wrecks unfold before our eyes.
I still hold 30% of my original investment however, which brings me to our current conundrum.
I hold grave reservations about the pathway to us becoming a "Producer". I can see year upon year of potential future capital raisings and share dilution, which leaves us languishing around the 1.5 cent to 2.5 cent range...As I still have significant stock holdings, I hope I am wrong, but I cannot find a "Happy Days-Fonzy" moment with the notion of CE1 becoming a producer.
Thanks again for your ongoing cold hard analytical précis...
Clozapine
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