"Oil will clearly continue to rise in the short and medium terms until the world reduces it's consumption."
Jezza,
This point I wasn't debating and I have no doubt that your experience in the industry dwarfs mine multiple times over.
My point was that the decline in reserves, or global production restriction, does not correlate to the prise rise - In the short term (Last 6-months) - and that the rises we are seeing is driven by speculation.
Based on your opinion - Oil will be rising at 50%-100% YoY into the future if the s/d fundamentals remain in the direction they are...?
To believe this is risky business if you are a trader.
