I agree, not the most conservative analysis,
You really cannot do analysis of the projects possible future earnings and then use a PE ratio on them now, when production is yet to start.
Your analysis validates that the longer-term market cap being over 1 billion but once it actually .... but not now.
I think that the market cap will approach these levels in due time as the companies projects develop and eventually reach production. The share price should creep up as more boxes are ticked and other good news such as resource upgrades. Until then their is risk and time value of money that warrants a discount.
Might well provide a good long-termer....
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