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Ann: Trading Halt, page-146

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Sungar

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08/07/19

22:39

Post #: 39428725
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Originally posted by Paddywagon1982: ↑

I think that if the off takes are secured with SS on same terms our share price will recover close to 18 CPS (maybe slight higher). At present J&R ability to absorb product has been completely priced out of share price. Therefore a resumption or restoration of an official off take agreement on the same terms should be enough to move the dial IMO. Then an equity raise at 18 or 20 CPS share for stage 2 would be a fairer outcome.Remember SS also have an asset on their balance sheet - at 10CPS- they have acquired J&R at bargain basement prices, and will be in the money as soon as fair value is reflected in share price. The question is what price is SS willing to pay for stable, consistent and quality supply in a Tier 1 mining country such as Australia. AJM management need to be careful though, timing is everything we cannot afford any further delays or problematic off take agreements- no doubt we will have learned our lesson from J&R. The other thing that could happen is that SS play hard ball thinking that AJM needs J&R agreement- this is unlikely as someone will scoop up the supply. In terms of probability I put it 60:40 in favour of a good outcome. I note AJM has produced an average grade of 1.20% for first 3 quarters of production so in terms of quality I'm sure it considered high quality.

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A stage 2 FID soon would be nice, given it is due any moment, although it may need minor revision downward to pricing since 2018 DFS (nothing major). They were talking an extra 120 mil to duplicate stage 1 so to get to fully funded stage 2 will be either equity, prepaid off takes or (but i think most unlikely option) more debt. You are right though, better off for shareholders improving the SP to 18c range before raising more equity. Money for jam if you ask me!

AJM Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Trading Halt, page-146

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Ann: Trading Halt, page-146

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