It is a matter of forecasts based on current data rather than painting scenarios we would like to see. I think many posters on HC simply indulge fantasies rather than objectively look at data before making forecasts.
I am sincere when I make these forecasts and I think I am not so tainted by selective filtering of information as others.
I am very cognizant of the things Miles raises such as the ratio of the average wage vs the average house but I think there are assumptions inherent in those figures.
Rather than asking what is the average wage, ask what is the average household income. Rather than assuming that we have a vanilla property market, try to see it as lots of segmented little markets and look for the ones which have potential.
Keep in mind what I have said about aspirational suburbs as opposed to renter suburbs. The boom will be in the renter suburbs and the demand will be at the lower end in those suburbs.
In the early 90's the top end was decimated whilst the bottom end rose in value.
When I say I am looking at those suburbs as an investor I am not contemplating flashy waterfront property I am thinking of the ones which will give me better rental returns to help me afford the costs month after month. Really quite ordinary and functional properties for people to live in.
If bargains appear higher up the food chain and flashier properties become way more affordable then that will be quite welcome and I can only hope I can afford them when/if that happens.
