history repeats chart, page-37

Sounds very fair, Vlad.
Firstly, Elliot Wave is more of a retrospective analysis tool I have found. It is very easy to make waves 3 here and there, and ABC patterns possible, but they are not very good at predicting things. They help you understand the market AFTER the fact. Correct me if I'm off base here.
As for charting: As much as it is an "academic" exercise, it is also used to make money trading. Here is my take on the issue:

MACD: Trending very much down. The short term line is well below the long term line, and there is NO positive divergence. Have a look at october to february that just went - it is POSSIBLE that a similar pattern will play out as the MACD fails to breach the 0 line comfortably.

Stochastics and CCI are both not in oversold conditions. This therefore does not give a buy signal either.

Gap: Yes, there is a gap, but it can take 2 years to fill a gap, and I have no doubt it will in BHP at some stage.

S/R: The $40 point is significant. The last time we closed below $40 was in december 07. The week JUST closed below $40, and for 2 weeks, BHP oscillated between 40 and about 41.30 or so. Then it died and got to $31 inn 3 weeks.

Volume: Lower volume on the bounce on friday, but large volume on the sell off. Not a good sign.

If anyone here is interested in Guppy's MMA: The chart speaks for itself. It suggests that the short term traders are killing BHP with compression and down turning of the longer term moving averages. There is NOTHING in this analysis to suggest that BHP is a buy.

The index is falling. Resources in general are bucking the trend. The index is in a bear market. If there is a further sell off, BHP and RIO will fall harder than you can ever think (ie think back to $31!)
Yes, this will provide a beautiful buy possibility, but only once its turned back up. Like was mentioned here the other day: Why buy at $40 when you can buy at $31? Believe me, you will NOT miss much upside here.

The risk? I guess there are some calling the bottom of the market here. Funnily enough, the market index made a new 52week low, and the last time it made this, BHP was at $31. Be careful you don't get caught in the sell off, as it could get nasty.

Cheers and beers.