AMI

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17.5¢ aurelia metals limited

AMI versus GOR. Which valuation is wrong?, page-2

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firehawk08

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24/07/19

13:04

Post #: 39668946
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Originally posted by Idle Wanderer: ↑

So there is the new kid on the block, Gold Road Resources. Just poured their first three gold bars at the Gruyere, WA, open cut joint venture with Goldfields..
Current Enterprise Value for GOR is $1,230 million [Market Cap $1,230 and no net debt].
Looks like GOR will produce about 40,000 oz in the First Half during the ramp up to commercial production of Gruyere and then 75,000 oz in the Second Half for a total production of 115,000 oz for the year, if all goes well..
AISC- hard to tell but might be around $1300 oz? For sure they'll be drawing down on their $100 million loan facility during the ramp up.

And then there's the almost down and out AMI ,lying pretty much punch drunk in the gutter at the moment after taking a few heavy blows.
Enterprise Value is only $265 milion [Market Cap $365 million minus about $100 million in cash].
Just guessing but lets say due to lower gold grades in FY20 AMI drop back to a gold production of 100,000 oz but with higher base metal throughput they maintain an AISC of $1000 oz.
Bottom line is that AMI will make more money from their activities than GOR in FY20. At the moment though, AMI is valued by the market at less than a quarter the EV of GOR.
So either AMI is valued too low - PROBABLE. Or GOR is valued too high - POSSIBLE.
Logically AMI has some way to go on the upside to return to a reasonable ballpark EV

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Sounds like you should sell short GOR to buy some AMI.

AMI Price at posting: 46.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 17.5¢		Change 0.005(2.94%)		Mkt cap ! $296.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
16.5¢	17.5¢	16.5¢	$796.5K	4.693M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	951177	17.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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AMI versus GOR. Which valuation is wrong?, page-2

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AMI versus GOR. Which valuation is wrong?, page-2

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Buyers (Bids)

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