Agree timing is everything and the Vale situation could really takes years.
What I would expect when supply starts to pick back up (both Vale and new production response to pricing) is that the 58 index gets absolutely destroyed back to US$40/t or lower as the market over reacts on the downside. Prior to Brazil there was very limited supply incentive for these low grade products and end users will know the miners have paid down debt and sustaining capex and can squeeze margins.
The higher grade 62 to 68 Fe product premium will expand once again and provide some price incentive for expansion.
Iron ore price, page-14626
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