Here are some examples of predictions from 5+ years ago that certainly have not been 5x or 10x higher than actual...
I do think that the data/forecasts can somewhat be cherry picked to suit either view though!
In general, from what I can find, the estimates have required upward revision over the years. The tipping point has now passed though, there is no turning back and we will see what exponential growth does from this point over the next decade!
The last one below (from 2011) is very interesting!!
(
https://info.ornl.gov/sites/publications/files/Pub27187.pdf)
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![https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663561-d8b39904f829e4a21d7e5b4155142be6.jpg](https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663561-d8b39904f829e4a21d7e5b4155142be6.jpg)
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![https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663588-18df2f2f01fc295fb2b0f1b4fcdb50f2.jpg](https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663588-18df2f2f01fc295fb2b0f1b4fcdb50f2.jpg)
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![https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663635-bc9eba5dbce72bc293496ebdb366e48a.jpg](https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663635-bc9eba5dbce72bc293496ebdb366e48a.jpg)
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![https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663644-0eafee186ebc186da38f79805276f66b.jpg](https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1663/1663644-0eafee186ebc186da38f79805276f66b.jpg)
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This one is VERY INTERESTING, from Feb 2011: