copper still at risk of big upside move mac

MARKET TALK: Copper Still At Risk Of Big Upside Move - Macq (Dow Jones)

DJ MARKET TALK: Copper Still At Risk Of Big Upside Move - Macq

0121 GMT [Dow Jones] Copper still at risk of substantial upward move in next
6-12 months, says Macquarie bank. Despite lack of Chinese buying interest since
early this year, market very close to balance, reported stocks actually
decreasing. "Although there is no sign of this yet, we continue to wonder what
would happen if Chinese consumers started to re-emerge as buyers," says
Macquarie. Main factor supporting copper in face of weak global demand are
continuing supply disruptions, calculated at already 600,000 tons from
projected mine supply in 2008, to exceed losses of past 2 years. Over next few
years, delivery of projects likely equally crucial. Revises up 2H08 forecasts,
reflecting risk that Chinese buyers decide to re-enter market in 2H. Forecasts
copper at $3.84/lb ($8,463/ton) for H2 2008. LME 3-month copper at $8,316/ton,
up $46 vs PM kerb. (EFB)