News: AGL AGL Energy Posts FY Underlying Profit After Tax Attributable $1,040 Million, page-5

I wonder whether AGL are not understating their results somewhat given the current political climate.

I also wonder if the $80-$100M impact from Unit 2 Loy Yang A being offline for 6/7 months takes into account the additional margin the operational Loy Yang A units will be making due to Victoria's wholesale spot prices being abnormally high for this period.

Victoria was up until the Hazelwood's closure a net exporter of electricity across the NEM with wholesale rates at $40 per MWh. This has now changed dramatically and has been exacerbated with 2+GW of breakdowns across the VIC electrical generating assets. -> https://reneweconomy.com.au/another-coal-unit-breakdown-in-victoria-with-five-thermal-units-now-offline-37313/

With the Desal plant adding another 90MW of demand I expect the AGL operational units at Loy Yang A will be making handsome margins over the next 12 months. Spot prices are now regularly above $100 per MWh with the forward market for Q1 2020 at $146 per MWh. -> https://www.asxenergy.com.au/futures_au/BV

And if the drought is only just beginning then this can only make matters worse (or better for Victorian generators).

I'm using AGL shares as a hedge against my electricity bills.