Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, page-267

hi @cmonaussie

Finally looked to see what I could glean from Shaleprofile

• EFS Oil (80 months) ~ 150mbo​
• EFS gas (80 months) ~ 300mmcf = 50mboe​
• Permian Oil (80 months)

  ~ 150mbo​

  ​
• Permian gas (80 months) ~ most 500mmcf - 1000mmcf = 80mboe - 160mboe​

Observations:

1. EFS 80 month EUR is 200mboe v Permian at 230mboe to 310mboe (but very similar on oil related recovery)
2. 80 month EUR on EFS of 200mboe x $32 / EBITDA x 85% NRI = $5.4M (which is not sufficient to recover capital outlay)
3. Based on SEA's type curve our 12 month oil recovery is 150mbo (which matches Shaleprofile's 80 month recovery. Similarly SEA's type curve EUR is closer to above 400mboe (almost double that from Shaleprofile), and Morgan's is up to 700mboe! (And SEA have stated they are producing ahead of the their type curves)

Basically, I think that the rate of production as per Shaleprofile is not economic, but based on SEA's type curve significantly economic. Given EOG's commentary about EFS wells being cash flow generative - I can't see how those comments would hold true if they were only producing as per Shaleprofile…

Even more so now, I think SEA need to disclose exactly what our cumulative production has been.
If we are ahead of the type curve, and therefore generated more than 150mbo oil in first 12 months of production, there is proof that our wells are repaying capital within 12 months - which would almost certainly see the share price move to intrinsic value (my intrinsic value of $0.80 to $1.20 is based on the SEA type curve)

EFS Oil (80 months)


EFS gas (80 months)


Permian Oil (80 months)


Permian gas (80 months)
​