My rough valuation numbers for some scenarios assuming costs of BG production at a low $3500pt (USD unless otherwise indicated):
2000tpa (Two year timeframe):
$7000pt margin - EBITDA $14m - EBITDA x 6.5 - MC $91M - (AUD68) AU $134m - (2 year discount) $AUD $105m - (20% dilution) AU $84m
10000tpa (5 year timeframe) :
$7000pt margin - EBITDA $70m - EBITDA x 6.5 - MC $455m - (AUD68) AU $669m - (5 year discount) AU $335m - (30% dilution) AU $235m
Current MC AU $107m - Current fair value range IMO 9c - 23c
I see decent upside potential particularly if Li2CO3 heads north of US$10500pt but perhaps not as much as others.
I'd appreciate imput from more knowledgeable posters.
AIMHO
Fundamentals (New), page-905
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